Thinking about SAG from a Mikey Madison stan Perspective. Thoughts?

I don’t see a scenario where anora goes home from SAG empty handed and it’s fair to say that Borisov will lose. I think the best case scenario for Mikey is to obviously win SAG, regardless of ensemble. The second best case scenario is actually to have Erivo/Anderson win because I think that completely takes Demi Moore out of the Oscars equation. A lot of people will start doubling down on Torres in this case but I think Mikey still has the edge considering Anora is BP.

Worst case scenario for SAG is to have Demi Moore win and Wicked win ensemble. I think most people are predicting this outcome. At that point I would say it’s a Demi 51% and Mikey 49% chance to win the Oscar. I don’t think SAG is AS representative of the industry because of their love of narrative.

My personal prediction is that Anora will win ensemble and Moore win actress. This will indicate that, yes, sag loves the narrative, but the Anora acting is undeniable and since Mikey already has the BAFTA, the support is BEYOND there for Madison come Oscars.

Basically, without merit, I believe Wicked has a better chance of going home from SAG empty handed than Anora (even though there’s no indication of that).

Is this copium/hopedicting?