Prediction game: when will Luxon be axed?

Chris Luxon is swanning off on yet another overseas jaunt this week - because nothing says "laser focused on the cost of living" like a trade delegation to a country that just doesn't do FTAs (India).

But today we saw yet another terrible poll result for Chris and the Nats, and they are well on track to single term humiliation.

Cast your mind back to the last time a badly polling elected National Prime Minister went overseas... poor old Jim Bolger was away for CHOGM, sneaky Jenny Shipley plotted a coup behind his back, and on his return he was Caeser salad. Arise Dame Jenny..

When has a PM ever turned around bad poll after bad poll, unprecedented poor preferred PM ratings, and open discussion about being replaced, to win the next election? You may think National MPs are stupid, but they're not stupid! They like their ministerial offices and its attendant baubles, and won't sail off to the sunset without doing something.

So even though the writing is on the wall, its far enough away from the election for the writing to not be on the wall yet, and anyone's guess for when Luxon will be axed. This will probably be deleted but I thought it would be fair game to run a sweepstake for time and date it will happen.

Date:

Time:

Bonus - new leader: