Why does nobody talk about moving the free throw line back?… some numbers to back up my thoughts
2p expected value per shot: 1.089, 3p expected value per shot: 1.077, free throw expected value on 2 shots: 1.564. Free throws are WAY too efficient. Move the free throw line back and players wouldn’t do everything they can to get to the line (flop, dive, exaggerate, embellish, bait). Bad referee calls would be slightly less impactful too.
To be clear, I think free throws SHOUKD be the most efficient way to score but not by this much. This disparity is ridiculous. I’d propose trying it out in g league to figure out new percentages if you move the line back 4 or 5 or 6 inches. Nothing crazy. Get the expected value to about 1.2
Lots of people seem to be sick of the foul baiting, flopping, diving and exaggerating in the NBA. Think of Embiid, prime harden, SGA, Brunson, etc etc.
But WHY are players baiting and flopping? First of all, the refs give them the call. Thats a huge part of the problem.
But here’s another huge reason: scoring at the free throw line is way, way too disproportionally efficient.
Of course teams and player are going to do everything they freaking can to get to the free throw line.
People talk about how there’s too many 3s so we should move the 3 point line back, but why don’t people talk about moving free throw line back to reduce flopping?
Some limitations in my 15 minute calculations: I didn’t include and1 free throws in the 2p expected value or the 3p expected value. BUT, for free throws I didn’t include 3 shot trips to the line so I assume those basically even out.