You can catch up on prior episodes in this series and look into my individual player writeups here:

• Episode 1 – Walker Jenkins (#1) and Andrew Morris (#30)
• Episode 2 – Brooks Lee (#2) and Noah Cardenas (#29)
• Episode 3 – Emmanuel Rodriguez (#3) and Yunior Severino (#28)
• Episode 4 – Marco Raya (#4) and Alejandro Hidalgo (#27)
• Episode 5 – Charlee Soto (#5) and Byron Chourio (#25)
• Episode 6 – Connor Prielipp (#6) and Ben Ross (#26)
• Episode 7 – Tanner Schobel (#7) and Zebby Matthews (#24)
• Episode 8 – Brandon Winokur (#8) and Noah Miller (#23)
• Episode 9 – David Festa (#9) and Yasser Mercedes (#22)
• Episode 10 – Danny De Andrade (#10) and Ricardo Olivar (#21)
• Episode 11 – Luke Keaschall (#11) and Austin Martin (#21)
• Episode 12 – Jose Rodriguez (#12) and Kala’i Rosario (#19)
• Episode 13 – Cory Lewis (#13) and Matt Canterino (#18)
• Episode 14 – CJ Culpepper (#14) and Jose Salas (#17)
• Episode 15 – Tanner Hall (#15) and Simeon Woods Richardson (#16)
• Episode 16 – Alex Isola, Andrew Cossetti, Anthony Prato, Bryan Acuna
• Episode 17 - Cody Laweryson, Dashawn Keirsey, Jackson Hicks, Jair Camargo
• Episode 18 – Jorel Ortega, Malik Barrington, Pierson Ohl, Yoyner Fajardo
• Episode 19 – Long shots and former 1st rounders

Finally, it’s time to unveil my person top 30 Twins prospect rankings! I’ll give the big reveal up front, and then dive in for a few justifications for each chunk of the list. Without further ado, here we go!

Wolly’s top 30

Justifications

Tier 1 - #1 through #3

The top of this list is by far the easiest, as I think you’d be pretty hard pressed to find anyone whose top 3 is not Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in that order. I feel this is so much the case that it’s not worth providing much justification here, but to give one sentence to each: For Jenkins, his upside is very clearly the highest of any player in the Twins farm system, and perhaps even including the Twins active roster. As clear Jenkins is #1, Lee is just as clear of a #2, with a very strong floor and continued reason to think he can be an All-Star caliber player for the Twins in the near future. And while Rodriguez may have the widest range of possible outcomes of any Twins prospect, it’s impossible to look past the sky-high upside that made a .240/.400/.463, 145 wRC+ season in 2023 feel like a disappointment.

Tier 2 - #4 through #9

This is the section that I struggled with the most, as we quickly start to run into some difficult upside vs realized output balances. I wrestled with Marco Raya vs David Festa a lot, ultimately giving the edge to Raya, but it’s very close and they round out the top 5 for very different reasons. For Raya, I feel he at absolute worst has the second highest upside of pitcher in the Twins system. While I was really hoping Raya would take a clearer step forward in 2023, if you dig into his season, I think you’ll find solutions to every concern you may have had. The one exception to that is purely innings pitched and how deep Rata pitched into games, but it’s entirely understandable that the Twins would want to be protective of Raya in only his second active season as a pro. Don’t let Raya’s 5.28 ERA at AA scare you off, it by no means tells an accurate story of his season, and Raya is still very much a jewel in our organization and should be viewed as such.

Festa is actually not who I would say has next highest upside as a pitcher in the Twins system, and I’d even need to think about if I’d slot him 3rd on that list, but it’s impossible to claim at this point that he isn’t the most accomplished. Reaching AAA in only your 3rd season as a pro, especially as a pitcher, is wildly impressive, and Festa did very well in his short time with the Saints, too. But 2023 was not the perfect follow-up to a breakout 2022, as a significant uptick in strikeout rate also came with more walks and an ERA nearly 2 full runs higher. Still, Festa’s output over the past 2 years have solidified him as the Twins’ latest mid round success story, and he has a shot to be an asset for us in the MLB as soon as this year. He’s a clear pick for me rounding out the top 5.

After Festa I come to Luke Keaschall, who I find myself being bullish on, despite only being 30 games into his pro career. He simply showed a lot of things during that short time that I really like. Keaschall will need to continue performing next year to hold onto his top 5 rank, but I love that he’s looking early on like a well rounded guy who’s solid to good at most things. I see his upside as a better version of a Jorge Polanco-type output, a quality everyday starter who may not quite be All-Star caliber, but someone all-around solid that can play several positions. I’ll openly admit this may be too high on Keaschall too early, but he’s where I kept ended up in the #6 slot.

Next up I have Austin Martin at #7, who despite a turbulent few years of prospect status bouncing around all over the place, is right on the cusp of being the Twins next graduate from the farm. There are undoubtedly still questions about Martin’s game, and I still am not sure how convinced I am that Martin can impact the ball enough to warrant being an everyday player for the Twins. But I do think he’s working with a good floor even if that doesn’t pan out and can bring value as a versatile bench guy with strong OBP skills that we’ll get to see at some point this year. I suspect it’ll take a few years until we know if Martin’s going to be a .280 hitter or a .240 hitter, but at worst there’s a chance the former pans out. There’s still a fair amount of variance in what we ultimately will get out of Martin, but his floor with upside for more moves him back into my top 10.

Finishing out my 2nd tier of Twins prospects is Charlee Soto in the 8 slot, and Brandon Winokur in the 9 slot. Both of these guys are purely based on projection at this point, with Soto still waiting his professional debut, and Winokur not yet 75 plate appearances deep. But I’d put Soto right up there with Raya in terms of highest pitching upside in our system, and I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing his first taste of action. Winokur, on the other hand, got off to a .288/.338/.546 start for us coming out of high school, and there’s 5-tool potential here, albeit with a long road ahead. I could definitely see Winokur as one of 2024’s hot risers.

Tier 3 - #10 through #14

Coming in at #10 I have Tanner Schobel, who is another recent draftee that has impressed me with how well-rounded he is. I don’t think Schobel has the upside of the guys ahead of him on the list, but I am already seeing the makings of a future big-leaguer here as Schobel worked his way up to AA in only his second pro season (and his first full season, after being drafted in 2022). Schobel just does a bit of this and a bit of that, hitting for solid average, chipping in a nice mix of extra base hits, and covering multiple positions. He’s on a great trajectory and the hardest thing for him may ultimately be finding space in the Twins crowded infield.

Back to back at 11 and 12 I have Cory Lewis and CJ Culpepper, whose young careers are eerily similar so far. Both mid round 2022 draft picks, both ran through Low-A with great results this year, both finished at High-A. Lewis had a better go round in Cedar Rapids than Culpepper did, and as such ranks just ahead here. Both pitchers have progressed through the system at virtually the exact same pace so far, and are poised to rise through the prospect rankings together as well.

#13 brings us Andrew Cossetti, who is a little bit behind the typical timeline as a 23 year old who reached High-A for this first time this year, but who delivered big time with a .287/.426/.534 slash across 35 games in Low-A and 60 games at High-A, combining for an organization-leading 163 wRC+. There is simply not much more that Cossetti could have done this year, breaking out in every way, and the main reason he hasn’t already stormed into the top 10 is just because I’d like him to prove it a bit longer after a college career that while good, was in the unheralded Atlantic 10 Conference. The 11th round draft pick thrust himself squarely onto the map this year and could wind up in the top 10 as soon as midseason if he continues to mash.

Capping tier 3 is Kala’i Rosario at #14 and Ricardo Olivar at #15. Rosario is coming off a breakout season for Cedar Rapids and is the reigning Midwest League MVP, his upside shining through for the first time in his early career with 27 doubles and 21 home runs in 120 games. He still has some development benchmarks to reach and is facing a big step up to AA competition next year, but he did more than enough to shoot up the rankings this year. Olivar, meanwhile, is also in the early stages, playing all 100 games with Low-A this year, but he followed up his big 181 wRC+ from 40 games 2022 rookie ball with a 136 wRC+ this year. Olivar still needs to find a comfortable defensive home, but his bat has been very strong and carries him up to the top half of this list.

Tier 5 - #16 through #20

Kicking off this tier is Pierson Ohl at #16 after an odd season that saw him struggle against A+ competition over 40 innings, but then pitching extremely well in AA to the tune of a 2.69 ERA in 87 innings. Although Ohl doesn’t put up big strikeout numbers, he controls the strike zone extremely well and has ranked top 10 in all of the minors in walk rate each of the past 2 years. He seems like he could be developing into yet another fast rising pitching prospect in our organization.

Jair Camargo takes the #17 slot. I found it a little difficult to rank Camargo as a fairly unique type of prospect – high power, high swing and miss and low OBP, yet solid batting average, and all coming from behind the plate. Camargo feels likely to make his major league debut this year, and while his free swinging approach is going to be frustrating at times, he has prime Gary Sanchez-like upside.

In at #18 is another AAA batter in Anthony Prato. Prato has quietly put together a solid minor league showing with a career .270/.390/.411, but unlocking some power has brought his slugging up to a combined .440 over the past 2 seasons without any dip in average or OBP. Prato’s rank here is based more on floor than ceiling, but he suddenly feels not at all far off from being a viable backup infielder at the professional level, playing all over the field with strong OBP skills and even platoon splits. The Twins have an infield logjam far before reaching Prato on the depth chart, and Prato only further enriches our quality infield depth.

The top 20 is rounded out by a pair of high ceiling arms in Matt Canterino and Connor Prielipp. While Canterino has been in the system far longer than Prielipp, both fall into the same category of fantastic stuff held off the field by injuries. I am particularly excited about Canterino, who I think would be a legit, legit top of the bullpen weapon if we could assume health. Prielipp, meanwhile, still has more time to see if he can buck the injuries and stick in the rotation, but with less than 10 innings pitched for the Twins in 2023, first needs to prove he can get back on the mound.

Tier 5 - #21 through #26

Tier 5 is led by Zebby Matthews, who is yet another mid round pitcher that has taken off in his early career with the Twins. Matthews put together a 3.84 ERA across A and A+ this year, walking only 15 batters in his 105 innings pitched. He’s yet another under the radar guy who has developed well since joining the Twins, and joins a strong, deep core of potential future mid-rotation starters.

We flip back to offense for #22 Yunior Severino, whose prospect rank is almost entirely driven by his ability to mash. Severino has a combined 44 home runs over 200 games in the past 2 seasons, and a surprisingly strong .274 average and .359 OBP to go along with it. Severino provides little defensive value at this point, but the kid has flat out hit for 2 strong years now, and if he keeps it up, he’ll provide value even as a DH only. Severino is another guy seemingly close to ready for a chance in the MLB, but who again will have to be patient with too many players ahead of him on the depth chart.

Andrew Morris takes slot #23 behind a strong professional debut culminating in a 2.88 ERA over a combined 85 innings at A and A+. Morris doesn’t have overpowering heat or close to it, sitting in the low 90s, but he has been very stringent with walks and his 2.0 BB/9 is a big reason for the quality results this year. Morris allowed far too many runners off of hits this year, with a 9.2 H/9 that will have to come down as he continues to progress, but mid to back end of the rotation upside is present here, too, despite pure stuff that doesn’t come across as anything special.

Simeon Woods Richardson is next at #24, and easily could be bumped up a number of slots depending on how you value proximity. SWR, at this point in the offseason, figures to be the next man up for the rotation after Louie Varland. The average fan is probably pretty cool on SWR by now, but he finished the season very strong in AAA and has had stretches of great ball each of the past few years. It’s basically now a just a matter of if he can consistently put it together for more extended periods of time.

Taking the #25 rank is Noah Cardenas, who is yet another pretty unique looking catching prospect. Cardenas has almost no over the fence power to speak of, but he controls the zone very well and has put up a career .409 OBP in the minors. Cardenas may be the best defensive catcher in our farm system, but is also one of the furthest away from the majors, having played the entire season at High-A this year.

Closing out this tier is Danny De Andrade coming in at #26. This feels a little low for DDA, in comparison to where he’s been on other prospect rankings, but I personally am just seeing a lot more modest floor than upside. DDA is pretty decent across the board, but doesn’t necessarily have any standout or high end skills to boast yet. Still, he is quite young at only 19 years old and played a full year in Low-A this season, so some room for growth as he catches up to his competition is built into his rank here.

Tier 6 - #27 through 30

Leading off our final tier is Yoyner Fajardo, who enjoyed a nice bounceback season this year in his first season with the Twins. Fajardo is a career .296/.373/.410 hitter in the minors, with 4 of his seasons coming in the Pirates org, but has progressed slowly, starting in the DSL in 2018 and just reaching AA for the first time this year. Fajardo transitioned from the infield to the outfield this year, and his blazing speed which helped him steal 50 bases in just 123 games this year should help him play a strong corner OF slot. Fajardo feels like a long shot prospect, but perhaps that’s unfair for a guy who’s been about the average age at every level in the minors and who has hit pretty well at each stop.

Ben Ross comes in at #28. 2023 was a step backwards for Ross offensively after putting up strong numbers in a short stint at Low-A following the draft in 2022, but he was still a productive hitter in 100 games at High-A, putting up a 115 wRC+ despite an unassuming slash of .240/.322/.455. Ross has played every defensive position other than pitcher and catcher, can if he can continue to do so at a strong level, that gives him a high floor to work with. If he’s able to keep developing offensively on top of that, it becomes easy to see a path to the majors as a high end true super utility.

#29 goes to Tanner Hall, who is another pure projection pick, not having yet made his pro debut. Hall is one of the softer throwing pitchers in our organization, but he has one of the best changeups you’ll find, with some scouts calling it double plus. Hall had a 2.92 ERA in 250 innings as a starter in college, and it’s too early to give up on him starting as a pro, but I think he has a nice floor as a bullpen option to fall back on, which would in theory allow him to get a few more ticks on his fastball while still utilizing his strong offspeed arsenal.

And finally, rounding out the top 30 is Noah Miller. I am admittedly pretty low on Miller, who has yet to put up a better wRC+ in a season than 92. There is simply little to no offensive output to speak for yet, although there’s a chance it’s still on its way with a strong walk rate and good contact skills that just have not yet translated, perhaps in part to Miller being a full 2 years younger than his competition at each step of the way. His offense will need to come around if he wants a shot in the majors, but if he can get there, he has a strong floor thanks to some of the best defense you’ll find in the organization, majors included. I’m going to be skeptical of Miller until he shows he can hit, but his glove will give him every opportunity to keep moving up.