My box office prediction for all of Disney's theatrical releases in 2024:

This is something that I posted on a Discord server 5 months ago, before I even joined this subreddit, but I have forgotten about it since then, I'm bringing it here because looking back, my opinions haven’t changed at all, and it could be fun to share.

I'm gonna leave it out of the list because the movie already premiered over a month ago, but I had Captain America: Brave New World under the Flops, I knew it wouldn’t be well received based on the BTS issues and reshoots reports, which would lead to bad WOM and big 2nd weekend drop similar to Quantumania. It’s something that I saw it coming and I think I even mentioned in some comments I made in the sub few months ago, now, to the list:

FLOPS:

  • Snow White

  • The Amateur

  • Tron: Ares

There’s just so much controversy surrounding the Snow White movie, it got to a point that it’s indeed hurting the movie, I can’t see it doing well.

The Amateur is a movie that there’s no hype for it, the marketing has also been very weak, even if the budget is low, I hardly see this movie breaking even.

And Tron: Ares, even with a stellar cast, I think people still don’t care about Tron in 2025, it will flop just like the first 2.

HITS

  • Zootopia 2

  • Avatar: Fire and Ash

The first Zootopia is popular among kids, not as much as Moana, but still, it’s a safe bet, the 1st one grossed over a billion, I think the sequel will do quite well.

Avatar is a box office juggernaut, it has a more than great release spot, do I really need to go on?

POTENTIAL HITS:

  • Lilo & Stitch

  • The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Lilo & Stitch I could see being a success, specially among kids, Stitch is a very popular character, but for me it’s not guaranteed as the 2 above. The movie still don’t have a proper trailer despite releasing in 2 months, I prefer to wait and see.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps would have hit a billion if it wasn’t in a very competitive release spot, with Superman and Jurassic World: Rebirth too close, it’s gonna be hard to go far at the box office. The movie looks good and the trailer left a good impression to it, the biggest problem is the release spot, I guess we'll see.

POTENTIAL FLOPS:

  • Thunderbolts*

  • Elio

  • Freakier Friday

  • Predator: Badlands

Thunderbolts* is a movie about a bunch of C Marvel characters and out of all 3 that Marvel has this year, this one seems to be the one that brought less awareness and hype to it. It would need to be incredibly good to have good legs and have a similar effect as Guardians of the Galaxy, but would that be enough to save its box office performance? I don’t know.

Elio is a original animated movie from Pixar that faced BTS issues, original animated movies haven’t been doing quite well lately, also, it just seems that Elio doesn’t have much awareness neither hype, even among kids, do you know anyone hyped for Elio? I don’t know if even a great word of mouth could save it. Plus, the movie releases too close to live-action How to Train Your Dragon, I could see families and kids choosing that one over Elio because it’s something they already are familiar with.

Freakier Friday is just… weird, who asked for that? A sequel to a 2003 movie, maybe nostalgia helps a bit, the budget is likely not very high, but still, I don’t think it will perform very well at the box office.

Predator: Badlands, don’t think this one will do very well, Predator movies never did great in theaters, I like the director and his work in Prey, but still, don’t think this one will have the same appeal as Alien: Romulus for example. Also, it’s releasing just 2 weeks before Wicked: For Good.

Note: when I posted these predictions back in a Discord server, Predator: Badlands wasn’t scheduled for 2025, so, I had to add it just now on my predictions list.