10-Week Forecast Predictions: 'THUNDERBOLTS' Strikes $64.5M Domestic Debut
Welcome to the first entry in this series where I share my predictions for major films that release ten weeks out, with an accompanying analysis being provided to support my thoughts! For this entry, the second Marvel Studios feature of 2025, Thunderbolts\* will be discussed!
THUNDERBOLTS\*
- Release Date (Domestic): May 2, 2025
- Predicted Domestic Debut: $64,500,000
- Predicted Domestic Total: $176,000,000
- Predicted International Total: $233,000,000
- Predicted Global Total: $409,000,000
Marvel had an especially strong run last year...with just one film: the unexpected billion-dollar hit Deadpool & Wolverine. It shattered numerous records across the board, among them being the new highest-grossing R-rated feature after Joker claimed that title just five years prior. It additionally managed to leg out to an impressive 3x multiplier, which Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 similarly managed in 2023, and although many people (me included) believed this performance's built momentum would help Captain America - Brave New World secure its own win, that didn't turn out to be the case.
It appeared as though Captain America - Brave New World would prove to be a more modest entry for Marvel this decade, box-office wise. The pre-sale numbers were originally considered to be solid evidence that this film could be another successful going for the studio, but it was apparent once critical reception was found to be generally unfavorable and that its previews constituted a large part of the domestic debut amount that it wouldn't reach anywhere near the heights that most expected (around the $500-650mil range). It's probable that it could fall short of its break-even point currently set at $425mil, despite its relatively low budget of $180mil. But could Thunderbolts\* end up in such a tight situation, even with positive reception?
What's most notable about this latest Marvel feature is that its trailer premiered at the Super Bowl, which if you don't know, draws in plenty of potential audience (more than 127 million people are thought to have watched the sports event this year, even being a slight increase from last year!)
Its Super Bowl trailer alone has since amassed more than 11 million views on YouTube, which provides some support to the possibility that audiences have considerable interest in this venture. However, what's also important to point out is that Captain America - Brave New World didn't resonate with audiences much as it received the lowest CinemaScore from any Marvel film: B-. This point is brought up continually as this suggests there may be more pressure placed on Thunderbolts\* to garner positive reception. Otherwise, people may not turn up in big numbers to view this film in theaters. Trailer reactions for the most part are decent, and Marvel has created some arguably effective promotion material for this film, such as new posters being released and as we mentioned before, the Super Bowl trailer. There's also some reasonable audience engagement mostly through discussions or posts on forums such as Reddit, where they share their thoughts and even fanart.
Overall, Thunderbolts\* might unfortunately be another misfire from Marvel as it aims to gross around the same amount as Captain America - Brave New World hopes to rake in for its global revenue.
Share your predictions, thoughts, and anything else in the comments! Next time, we will discuss Final Destination - Bloodlines, but since that releases two weeks after Thunderbolts\*, the next edition will also arrive in two weeks!