Atrioc doesn't understand arbitrage and +EV betting
Atrioc's reaction to the sports betting video the other day demonstrated his lack of understanding about the world of +EV betting and arbitrage. These methods of gambling (which I hesitate to call gambling because I know I'll win long-term) are certifiably and mathematically profitable in the long-term. It's substantially less risky than options trading and arguably less risky than betting the stock market because it's agnostic of market conditions and guaranteed to win regardless of market environment.
Arbitrage betting involves line shopping to find two lines where you can bet for a guaranteed win. As long as you're able to get down the required amounts at the sportsbook (i.e. you aren't limited on one or both of the books), which you can verify before placing the bet preventing this mistake, you are **guaranteed** the win, full stop, no risk involved. +EV betting involves finding those outlier lines and not hedging them, often boosting your profits through sportsbook promotions to further increase your take-home profits should the bet win. Will you lose many of the bets? Sure! But through processes like devigging you can mathematically calculate the expected value of the bet and a 10-20% positive EV bet placed hundreds of times will result in long-term wins, guaranteed. Again, this is not degenerate sports gambling - it's MATH.
I've made at least ~$400 monthly doing this on the side of my work from home 9-5 since discovering this method in October and am collectively up almost $12K. I'm not exaggerating or lying and I have proof attached - every single month, I've made at least $400 by the end of it - no losing months. I am the guy who pays ~$100 monthly for the platforms that allow me to quickly screen odds and find positive EV plays. I pay for pretty much everything with my gambling winnings - I bank my entire finance salary and just bought a new PC and OLED TV over the past four months just through my gambling winnings.
Is there risk? Yes, there's risk with any activity. Check my daily results in the post and you'll see I lost almost $1K in a single day on Wednesday. But I'm already up $12K total and $4K on the month so it's a risk I'm willing to take. If you're fine dumping your life savings into an ETF or playing the stock market with your taxable income, there's no reason to be so high and mighty as to believe that arbitrage and EV betting is a losing game. It's mathematically not and to believe so is ignorant. I've been limited on some sportsbooks but that doesn't instill any additional risk, it just limits my future earning potential. Of course, If you're liable to get addicted to gambling for another reason, then I definitely wouldn't recommend this.
If this sounds too good to be true, why do sportsbooks let this happen? Because most people don't bet this way! The vast, VAST majority of sportsbook users are casuals who are legitimately betting on what they themselves think will occur in the game. I haven't bet that way in years. They have one sportsbook like FanDuel or DraftKings and play whatever they think is going to happen. They aren't line shopping or taking advantage of profit boost opportunities. The proportion of EV bettors is a fraction of a fraction of the book's overall userbase, and it's a risk they've surely accounted for in their financials.
I'm not here to advertise anything - I don't have a Discord or Twitter account where I post my advantage plays, I'm not going to share any of the platforms I use to find the bets that I place. I don't do gambling for the dopamine rush - I'm always looking for more ways to make money and I have found a method to do so. I'm just sharing a perspective that runs counter to Atrioc's point that he's not willing to budge on despite being objectively wrong and anti-mathematical. He didn't seem to even listen to the video and has a pretty rudimentary understanding of the more underground mechanics of sports gambling. The bit at the end of the video where he explained how he would do this for his son is an excellent point because it is in fact guaranteed money, which Atrioc disagrees with despite having watched an entire video showcasing that the money is indeed mathematically guaranteed.
Feel free to ask questions, I'm happy to answer :)
Check out my monthly winnings since starting +EV betting:
