Hello, brothers! Let's discuss the value of Supermicro in 2025.
First, I kindly ask for your understanding as we focus on analyzing Supermicro from a standard corporate analysis perspective, excluding any accounting irregularities.
Here are the input values based on the information:
- 2024 TSMC H100 Production Volume: 960,000 units
- 1 Server Configuration: 8 GPUs per server
- Supermicro’s Share: 40% of the total, resulting in 48,000 servers
- 1 GPU Cost: Approximately $35,000
- Server Cost: $28,000 × 8 GPUs = $280,000 per server
- Total Server Revenue: 48,000×280,000=13.44 billion USD48,000 \times 280,000 = 13.44 \, \text{billion USD}48,000×280,000=13.44billion USD
- Operating Margin: 10% to 14%
Let’s calculate the revenue and operating profit under these conditions!
"Total production cost": $13.44 billion USD
Operating Profit:
- At 10% margin: $1.344 billion USD
- At 14% margin: $1.8816 billion USD
"Total revenue"= "Total production cost"+"Operating Profit"
14.78~15.22billion USD
Operating Profit:
- At 10% margin: $1.344 billion USD
- At 14% margin: $1.8816 billion USD
These values reflect Supermicro’s potential performance based on the provided assumptions.
What I mentioned is purely the production cost, and ultimately, adding the operating profit to this will give Supermicro's total revenue.
The 2024 annual performance can be considered close to these estimates. However, TSMC's production volume is expected to increase by approximately 25% in 2025. Furthermore, Charles Liang has indicated that operating profit will be maintained at a minimum of 14%. With a 25% increase in total revenue and operating profit fixed at 14%, the value of Supermicro in 2025 could be projected at $65.8 per share based on the current stock price.
The estimated annual revenue for 2025, based on my calculations, is $18.62billion, with an operating profit margin of 14%.