Unverified Pi Calculations

I'm a numbers guy. I like figuring things out, calculating simple numbers and just knowing outcomes.

With that said, this is purely for discussion, and just try to absorb some more information.

I've been trying to guesstimate the amount of the unverified Pi, that will become verified (just for fun), but everywhere I look it seems answers are different.

My simplified method in question:

(These numbers are purely made up, not actual)

If I have 10k Unverified Pi, and 10 referrals, but only 5 of those referrals passed KYC, will HALF of my unverified be confirmed?

Is it dependent on the amount that is mined per referral?

My thoughts are, for my referrals, the ones who passed KYC were my trusting, consistent miners. The ones who didn't pass, maybe mined for a little while then quit.

So with that, could it possibly be more than half that is confirmed?

This is merely for discussion, and for fun. I'm not worried about losing Pi, that was already said in the White Papers, I'm just curious on the calculations, and how much we all will lose/receive from it!