Simulation results until the end of the season - playoff pairs, F4 teams etc

I built a simulation framework for the Euroleague season. It is a Monte Carlo simulation of the actual remaining games of the season. The probability of the home team to win is a weighted contribution of the ELO rankings and the net ratings of the teams (split in home and away).

This work is in collaboration with the "@Figurei8ht" account on X.

After 29 rounds here are the results

Probability for the top4, top6 and top 10 at the end of the regular season

Probability for each team to finish in the top 4, top 6 and top 10 respectively.

Probabilities for the play-offs, final 4 and the winner based on their results so far.

Probability for each team to make it to the play-offs, Final 4, the final and win the Euroleague.

The probability for each team to finish in each position at the end of the regular season

Probability of finishing in each position for each team at the end of the regular season.

Finally, the top 3 most probable pairs in the play-offs for the positions 1-4.

For more insights and details follow Figurei8ht and g_giase on X (Twitter).