The probability of having Capitano in 5.6

I would like to know everyone's opinions, how much is the probability of having Capitano during the 5.6 patch for you?

Personally I don't want to be too pessimistic but I would say 50%

Edit: I was able to see your opinions, I agree with you about having little hope of having Capitano right away but I don't understand why Hoyo did so much marketing towards Capitano? Why the sticker? Why the short film? Why the story?