Tonys Best Musical predictions

The Best Musical lineup is pretty close to locked with three shows in the wings that could shake things up.

In order of likelihood of getting nominated the four frontrunners currently are:

Death Becomes Her (It’s a hit! Plus, we usually get one big brassy musical in here and the material is so beloved. That said, I don’t think it’s in the convo for a win.)
Maybe Happy Ending (the little show that could! Rave reviews and strong box office should make it a contender.)
Dead Outlaw (only ranked here until reviews. Rave off broadway run plus an A+ creative team make this a strong win contender.)
Operation Mincemeat (only ranked here until reviews but I think this is a strong win contender. Won the Olivier and feels like the kind of West End import that is a Tonys darling.)

In the race for the last slot:

Buena Vista Social Club (Reviews are going to play a big part here)
Boop! The Musical (After seeing the first preview, I have a feeling this is going to fall short unless they make massive changes.)
Smash (Same as Boop!)

Longshots:

Question marks:

Real Women Have Curves: The Musical (This is the biggest question mark and could shake up the race depending on changes made since ART since it's such a relevant topic)
Just In Time (I suspect this will just be a Best Actor play)
Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends (Revues are eligible but unlikely)