Biggest mistake we could make is to think Donald Trump and his disciples are fools
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Trump and his disciples are no fools Anthony Albanese cannot control want Donald Trump will do, so Australia must focus on the things within its command.
American theologian Reinhold Niebuhr is credited with writing the prayer now synonymous with Alcoholics Anonymous: “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference.” The Albanese government should adopt this as a mantra in dealing with Donald Trump. No one can control what the US President will do, so Australia must focus on the things within its command. At the top of the list should be cutting the cost of energy, removing onerous labour laws and slashing the sea of red tape, all of which are making Australia a bad place to do business. If there is to be a full-blown tariff war then this is just the first shot and we need to be fit to fight. That also means not living a delusion. No one was going to change the President’s mind on tariffs: a different ambassador, a different government or more baksheesh would not have counted for a hill of beans. Sacking Kevin Rudd would be seen as a sign of weakness. No one will work harder than the former prime minister to press Australia’s case, or be less daunted by roadblocks. Rudd is nothing if not relentless.
Former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says Australia “is going to have to” introduce retaliatory tariffs against the US. Mr Newman told Sky News host Caleb Bond that Australia is going to get to a point where it has to “take the US on”. “And I think we’ve got to be very careful about how we do it.”
Malcolm Turnbull’s intervention might have been unhelpful but it was wholly unremarkable, as was Trump’s response. And it’s more than a little discordant when those who loudly champion free speech now treat criticising the US President as a thought crime. But if Turnbull really wants to help he can disavow Australia’s economy-crippling energy “transition”. The energy regulator signalled another hike in electricity prices this week, marking the latest milestone on our pathway to poverty. We are witnessing a wilful demolition of this nation’s wealth by clueless state and federal governments.
The Coalition is walking through a minefield by insinuating that it would have won a tariff reprieve. If, against the odds, every card falls its way and it wins government in May, this claim will rapidly be put to the test. Does it really feel that lucky? And Liberals and Nationals might find walking in Trump’s shadow a cold place to be in the run-up to the poll.
Trump has shown no inclination to help conservative fellow travellers. His trolling of Canada has breathed life back into that country’s Liberal Party, which was on track for an epic defeat at the hands of the Conservatives in an election that must come by October. The Liberals have dumped the dead weights of Justin Trudeau and its commitment to a consumer carbon tax. New Prime Minister Mark Carney – former head of the British and Canada central banks – is building his fight back on campaigning against Trump. “We didn’t ask for this fight but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves,” Carney said, referring to the endearing habit of ice hockey players who shake off their mitts to signal a fistfight is about to begin. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. Think about it. If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.”
On February 15, that metaphorical brawl was made real in a match between the US and Canada. The Canadians booed as the US anthem played and when the game began it was stopped by three fights in the first nine seconds. There is a price to pay for treating people with contempt.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau taunted the United States on Thursday night, February 20, after his country won the 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey tournament in overtime, posting, “You can’t take our country – and you can’t take our game.” Team Canada’s Connor McDavid scored the game-winning goal to give his team the 3-2 win over the US in Boston. The game was played amid heightened rivalry after US President Donald Trump said Canada should become his country’s 51st state, with Trump openly calling Trudeau the “governor” of Canada. Negotiations over increasing tariffs on Canadian goods into the United States have also caused friction. The American national anthem has been regularly booed by Canadian sports fans in recent weeks. The favour was returned when Canada faced Finland in Boston on February 17. Trudeau posted video of him celebrating the overtime win, hugging friends in a bar while wearing a Canada jersey. Credit: Justin Trudeau via Storyful
Most Australians are also leery of the US President so expect Labor, the Greens and the teals to cast Peter Dutton as a Trump clone or ally as the election race heats up. In close races, a handful of votes will count and, with tariffs rises now a given, the risk of blowback on the government is minimal.
Surely the lesson for the Liberal Party from the past week of international and domestic politics is that it also needs to focus on the things it can control. The West Australian state poll was a catastrophe, worse than the near-extinction level event of 2021 because the excuse of pandemic politics was gone. It points to a state division in terminal decline.
The Liberal story is little better in South Australia, where two historically bad by-election losses now leave it with 13 out of 47 seats in the House of Assembly, its equal lowest representation ever.
The Victoria Liberals thought the best way to spend most of the past two years was brawling over the spoils of permanent opposition. The NSW division is under administration.
What part of this screams a May miracle victory to you?
All parties should now be mapping out how they will guide Australia in a world where the road rules have been torn up. All should plan for more disruption from the US, China and Russia.
The biggest mistake in drafting those maps is to start from the position that Trump and his disciples are fools. No one who has managed to dominate US politics for a decade is an idiot. Many on the Trump caravan are highly qualified and have long debated the consequences of their actions. It makes more sense to look for the order in the Trumpian chaos, the method in the madness.
There is a guidebook. The four wilderness years were not wasted. Under the banner of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation produced Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise. It’s a manifesto for the radical reordering of the US and the world.
Among its 887 pages are two essays making the cases for and against free trade.
The case for protection was written by former professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, Peter Navarro. The China hawk and tariff warrior was part of the first Trump administration. He refused to testify before the committee investigating the January 6 Capitol riots and was jailed for four months. In a land where loyalty to the king is currency, no one has stored more treasure than Navarro.
No one can control what the US President will do, so Australia must focus on the things within its command. No one can control what the US President will do, so Australia must focus on the things within its command. Navarro rejects the free trade orthodoxy because he believes it enriches America’s allies and adversaries while hurting the US, weakening its industrial base and strengthening China’s. He believes it benefits Wall Street at the expense of “Main Street manufacturers and workers”. He’s not alone. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared this week: “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.
“The American dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility and economic security,” Bessent said. “For too long, the designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this.”
These men wager that tariffs will reshore manufacturing and higher prices will be offset by better jobs, better economic and national security and a better society. They expect costs and disruption and wager that, if there is to be a recession, it’s best to have it before the November 2026 congressional elections.
They may be wildly wrong on every element of this but it will be an interesting experiment.
There are scant references to Australia in the conservative manifesto but we should pay heed to page 94. There, on defence, it says: “Support greater spending and collaboration by Taiwan and allies in the Asia-Pacific like Japan and Australia to create a collective defence model.”
Australia’s best defence is to study the form guide and expect that we will have to pay the price for our own economic and national security. Both demand that we use the resources beneath our feet.
Let us pray that we have leaders capable of navigating this era. But I wouldn’t give up drinking.